With Presidential elections due in January 2027, Nigeria’s political elite is deep in negotiation, backbiting and influence peddling.

There are no outstanding challengers to the incumbent, Bola Tinubu, as jostling has seen the opposition fracture. Peter Obi – popular among the youth – has joined forces with Rabiu Kwankwaso, an equally influential northern politician who served as Defence Minister under Olusegun Obasanjo. Obi has reportedly promised to serve only one term, creating the essential North-South coalition and obeying Nigeria’s unwritten rule that government by a southerner follows government by a northerner.

The once-dominant Progressive Democratic Party that brought Obasanjo to power is screening former President Goodluck Jonathan as its sole candidate – rekindling a constitutional debate as to whether Jonathan is eligible to run again. Jonathan completed Umaru Yar’Adua’s term after Yar’Adua died in office, and then completed a second term.

Most pained by the dissolving opposition is Atiku Abubakar, who served as Obasanjo’s Vice-President and whom national daily This Day has described as a “perennial contestant for the position”. Local observers say the trouble is that Abubakar, now in his 80s, would expect to do eight years. Governing Africa’s most populous nation is gruelling; having had elderly, infirm and democratically elected Yar’Adua die in office, and Buhari, whose age rendered him largely incapable, age will count against Atiku. Also counting against Atiku – a northerner – is “it’s the south’s turn”.

That leaves Tinubu, a southerner, as favourite to win – even though he’s broken all unwritten rules while in office. Cardinal among these is having concentrated power in himself and trusted partners from his home region, the south-east. These include the head of State-owned Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation, the inspector-general of police, and most recently a new Finance Minister. Tinubu has appointed a retired army general from the south-west as a homeland security adviser.

Nigeria’s tax tzar, Taiwo Oyedele, formerly a partner of global audit firm PwC, replaced economist and investment banker Wale Edun, a long-term Tinubu apparatchik, as Finance Minister in late April. Edun had become critical of Tinubu – particularly for announcing economic policies in haste with little regard for the consequences on ordinary people. Several, like scrapping fuel subsidies, were immediately inflationary.

As chair of the tax commission, Oyadele pushed through one of Tinubu’s key reforms – a complete overhaul of Nigeria’s tax system, increasing tax revenue from 5% of GDP to around 10% today. Oyadele looks set to increase pressure on Nigerians with a tax-to-GDP target of 20%, largely through technology, notably by tying Nigerians’ every economic activity – work, banking, travel – to a unique digital National Identification Number.

Nigeria’s macroeconomic progress under Tinubu and Wale has been impressive – especially compared to the dire performance during Buhari’s eight years in office, which overlapped with the Covid-19 pandemic. Wale’s departing statement highlighted what he saw as his two main achievements: stabilising the macroeconomic environment, doubling growth to 4% while halving inflation from 35% to 15%. Other significant measures include the substantial reduction in debt servicing, which under Buhari had become 90% of revenue. It now absorbs only 50% of revenue – thanks largely to Tinubu scrapping fuel subsidies as soon as he entered office.

Nevertheless, opposition critics like Obi say debt service remains a concern at $11.6-billion, outpacing the combined capital investments in critical sectors like health, education and infrastructure. Critics like former central bank governor Lamido Sanusi criticise Tinubu for continued borrowing, most recently $1.25-billion from the World Bank.

Stabilising the macroeconomic picture has significantly improved Nigeria’s standing as an investment destination: the Nigeria Exchange is up 60.87% with a market worth N160.5-trillion ($117-billion). Central to this was Nigeria’s return in early April to the FTSE Russell frontier market index – expected to deliver up to $1-billion in foreign currency inflows. The index reclassified Nigeria to frontier-market status for the first time since 2023, acknowledging improvements in key criteria such as regulatory oversight and capital repatriation. Macroeconomic improvements have resulted in strong earnings from companies like Dangote Cement, Seplat and Zenith.

Despite macroeconomic successes, Nigeria’s elections remain popular and emotional affairs as citizens smart from Tinubu’s tough reforms. One government adviser says the election run-up challenge is to ease the burden on citizens. Ending fuel subsidies coincided with measures to liberalise the naira – both were inflationary. Inflation of 15% is hard on society’s poorest; a February World Bank report noted poverty affects some 140-million Nigerians. Transporting people and goods costs more – asking people to pay more taxes to meet Oyadele’s target won’t work.

One of Tinubu’s election promises was to deliver power to the people but businesspeople describe the electricity situation as “still appalling”. Tinubu has appointed another southerner to lead a task-force to improve the sector, saying: “Don’t elect me if the power situation doesn’t improve”. Perhaps people will hold him to his word and vote him out.